Better Polls Visualization

Better Polls Visualization

Organisation: Sueddeutsche Zeitung (Germany)

Publication Date: 11/10/2016

Description

At the Süddeutsche Zeitung Editor's Lab we were working on a better way to deal with opinion polls. In autumn 2017 the next general election will be held. In the months to come, opinion polls play an even more important component of reporting about German politics. Traditionally, media outlets are reporting about in a new poll in the following style: If election would be held today, party x would get y per cent of the votes. This is a deline of z per cent compared to previous week. This has two major shortcomings: Polling data are blurry As it is the case with a lot of data: We readers are tempted to take them as a fact - solely due the fact of decimal places. But in fact, polls are a insecurity attached that has mainly two sources: Most of the times, only the key figure is communicated. Statistically, this value is the mean inside a confidence level, that can be interpreted as "In 95 percent the party's result will be between 10 and 15 per cent." Every polling institute has its own way of conduction its survey: How big is the sample size? How do they weigh different demographics? How do they treat undecided voters or non-voters? Therefore every survey is wrong in its own way. But on an aggregate level they provide valid information about potential voting patterns of the electorate. Therefore a smarter way of reporting about opinion polls is to get as many data as possible. Data Source The most comprehensive overview of German opionion polls can be found on Wahlrecht.de, a website about maintained by volunteers. We created the R package germanpolls for scraping this data. Calculation of confidence intervall The data on Wahlrecht.de has information on the party's survey result and the sample size. This offers the opportunity to calculate standard errors (se) and a confidence intervall (ci). The corresponding formula: se = sqrt(p * (1-p) / n) se: standard error p: survey result n: sample size With a significance level of 0.05 and a z-value of 1.96 the confidence intervall can be computed: Lower limit: ci_lower = p - 1.96 * [p (1-p)/ n] Upper limit: ci_upper = p + 1.96 * [p (1-p)/ n] Calculation of a rolling average In order to offer a single value we compute a rolling average with a lag of 10. This is an easy implementation that can be extended, especially by weighing the individual polls.

Technologies used for this project:

R, NodeJS
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