2016 Election Forecast

2016 Election Forecast

Organisation: FiveThirtyEight (United States)

Publication Date: 04/10/2017



Polls dominated discussion of the 2016 election — but not in a good way. Commentators, political operatives and the candidates themselves cherry-picked results and misinterpreted the evidence. As a result, the public went into Election Day largely misinformed, thinking Hillary Clinton had an unassailable advantage over Donald Trump. This project sought to show polling results and how they translated into a forecast, nationally and in every state, thereby communicating the uncertainty in the polling. If polls were perfect, you wouldn’t need a model or a forecast — you could just take an average. But even the best polls are inexact; quantifying that margin for error is why we issue a forecast. We created a dashboard that let readers explore every poll we collected and every aspect of our forecast through a series of constantly updating data visualizations.
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